ME290M
Expert Systems in Mechanical Engineering
Spring 1999, T-Th 12:30-2:00 pm
1165 Etcheverry Hall, Course Control No. 56369 http://best.me.berkeley.edu/~aagogino/me290m/s99
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| ME290M
Spring 1999, T-Th 12:30-2:00 pm
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Conditional Probability of Seismic State Conditioned on Oil State
|
Oil |
Marginal Probability |
No Structure |
Open Structure |
Closed Structure |
|
Dry |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
Wet |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
Soaking |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
|
Marginal Probability |
0.41 |
0.35 |
0.24 |
Conditional Probability of Oil State Conditioned on Seismic State
|
Oil |
Marginal Probability |
No Structure |
Open Structure |
Closed Structure |
|
Dry |
0.5 |
0.73171 |
0.42857 |
0.20833 |
|
Wet |
0.3 |
0.21951 |
0.34286 |
0.375 |
|
Soaking |
0.2 |
0.04878 |
0.22857 |
0.41667 |
|
Marginal Probability |
0.41 |
0.35 |
0.24 |
EV = 0.41 ($0) + ).35 ($32,920) + 0.24 ($87,590) = $32,540 EVI = expected value of information = (EV with info) — (EV without info) = $32,540 - $20,000 = $12,540
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Last updated: 8 February 99